Aveneu Park, Starling, Australia

Traditionally, is about 50,000). In the north

Traditionally, the main challenge in this regard was the
situation in Afghanistan, where crisis phenomena continue to increase. The most
important threat is the concentration of militants in North Afghanistan,
outlined in 2014-2015, on the borders of the former Soviet republics. An
alarming event was the capture by the Taliban of Kunduz and the continued
general weakening of the positions of the Kabul government. The last is still
internally weakened by interethnic contradictions between the Pashtuns and
Tajiks; Western aid, including military, is gradually decreasing, and other
external players can not or will not replace it. The fighting capacity and
morale of the Afghan army, to which the US spent $ 43 billion since 2002, are
very low, and it is unlikely that it will be able to resist the Taliban and other
terrorist groups if external assistance worsens. An example of what should be
feared is the fate of the Iraqi army prepared by the Americans, who fled before
the weakly armed terrorists of the IG.


A dangerous trend is the relocation of large groups of international
terrorists to the north of Afghanistan from the north of Pakistan. Now,
according to the estimates of the Afghan security forces transferred to the UN
, there are about 6,500 active foreign terrorist fighters in the country
(taking into account the Afghans themselves, actively participating in the
rebel groups, mainly in the Taliban, the number of militants is about 50,000).
In the north of Afghanistan, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, a
whole network of camps for international terrorists has been deployed. In this
context, it is possible to repeat the events on the model of the “Batken
War”.In principle, the CSTO has the forces prepared for this, and they
conduct regular exercises on the borders of Afghanistan. The only question is how
much will Russia be ready for the “third front” of the war after
Ukraine and Syria. However, ignoring the corresponding threat is also not an
ideal strategy, since in the case of complete destabilization of Central Asia,
Russian megacities will immediately feel the consequences of mass flows of
migrants, compared to which the European migration crisis of 2015 will seem
rather frivolous.

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